Albert Edwards: Global Strategy Weekly - 16 March 2010
Ultimately, as my colleague Dylan Grice writes, I think we head back to double-digit inflation rates as governments opt to default. I certainly again expect to see CPI inflation above 25% in the UK and indeed in most developed nations in my lifetime – I have happy memories of the three-day week and doing my homework by candlelight. In the near term, however, the deflationary quicksand will suck us ever lower until we suffocate. A key driver for underlying inflation remains unit labour costs. While unit labour costs decline at an unprecedented rate, they are sucking us inevitably into a Fisherian, debt-deflation spiral. Only then will we see how far policymakers are willing to go to debauch the currency. Last year saw them cross the Rubicon. Monetisation is now the policy lever of first resort.
- Summary Of Albert Edwards' Latest...
Via ValueWalk. And just in case readers haven't read them yet, SocGen put out collections of Albert Edwards' and James Montier's letters from 2008 a few years ago, and then also put out a collection of Dylan Grice's letters from 2009-2012....
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- Recent Socgen Pieces
Thanks to Jason for passing the links along. Links to: Albert Edwards: We are now walking on the deflationary quicksand - 24 June 2010 Dylan Grice: Double dips, siren calls and the inflationary bias of policy - 30 June 2010 - ...