Money and Finance
- Albert Edwards: Tapering Talk All The Way To The Next Recession
Via ValueWalk: Albert Edwards is back at it again. Earlier this week, the SocGen analyst put out a report blasting UK Chancellor George Osborne and talking about the massive credit bubble in China. Just a few weeks ago Albert Edwards said we were “One...
- John Mauldin's Outside The Box - Popular Delusions: The Bull Case For Safe Havens
For Grice’s previous piece, see HERE. A month ago in Outside the Box, Dylan Grice made the case for the need for safe havens, due to expansive monetary policy. But what is a safe haven anymore? In today’s piece, a follow-up to last month’s, Dylan...
- Dylan Grice Leaving Socgen
SORRY to see that Dylan Grice is deserting his strategist post at Societe Generale, where the team never fails to keep readers entertained. He is off to join an investment management firm as did his predecessor, James Montier, who is now at GMO. His final...
- The View From Socgen
JUST back from Societe Generale's annual strategy seminar, held in the west end. As usual it was packed; as usual it was a jolly affair (considering the gloomy message) with Albert Edwards wearing a floral shirt that he may well have acquired in the...
- Dylan Grice Slams Richard Koo's Ideas Of Balance Sheet Recessions, Liquidity Traps, And Debt Deflations
Societe Generale analyst Dylan Grice has attacked the idea of the balance sheet recession, pioneered by Richard Koo, suggesting that it's a sham. Grice notes that the balance sheet recession episode that Japan has encountered is only one blip in history,...
Money and Finance
Albert Edwards and Dylan Grice: Bearish Forecasts from Two Top Strategists
Found via ValueWalk.
It’s been nearly 18 years since Albert Edwards forecast an “ice age” in which bonds would outperform equities. He’s been right until just recently, when cumulative returns on the two classes converged. But Edwards insists that his thesis is still accurate – deflation will be the force to propel bonds over stocks, he says. Dylan Grice, meanwhile, warns that the markets operate on an unstable equilibrium that could devolve into apocalyptic conditions.
The two spoke at Societe Generale’s annual research conference in London on Jan. 14. Edwards is the firm’s global strategist. Grice is the director of research at Edelweiss Holdings, a Zurich-based investment manager. Prior to that, Grice worked alongside Edwards at Societe Generale.
“We are one recession, one slip away from outright deflation, both in the euro zone and in the U.S.,” Edwards said. That would adversely affect equities, he said.
If that message wasn’t sufficiently foreboding, Grice warned of a societal breakdown that would be far more disruptive.
The financial markets measure trust through yield, according to Grice. Investors should not be lulled into assuming today’s record-low yields (in both equities and bonds) imply similarly low degrees of risk. That is incongruous with current political developments, he said.
“It is wrong. It is the last hurrah,” Grice said. “This is not just an economic but a social phenomenon.”
- Albert Edwards: Tapering Talk All The Way To The Next Recession
Via ValueWalk: Albert Edwards is back at it again. Earlier this week, the SocGen analyst put out a report blasting UK Chancellor George Osborne and talking about the massive credit bubble in China. Just a few weeks ago Albert Edwards said we were “One...
- John Mauldin's Outside The Box - Popular Delusions: The Bull Case For Safe Havens
For Grice’s previous piece, see HERE. A month ago in Outside the Box, Dylan Grice made the case for the need for safe havens, due to expansive monetary policy. But what is a safe haven anymore? In today’s piece, a follow-up to last month’s, Dylan...
- Dylan Grice Leaving Socgen
SORRY to see that Dylan Grice is deserting his strategist post at Societe Generale, where the team never fails to keep readers entertained. He is off to join an investment management firm as did his predecessor, James Montier, who is now at GMO. His final...
- The View From Socgen
JUST back from Societe Generale's annual strategy seminar, held in the west end. As usual it was packed; as usual it was a jolly affair (considering the gloomy message) with Albert Edwards wearing a floral shirt that he may well have acquired in the...
- Dylan Grice Slams Richard Koo's Ideas Of Balance Sheet Recessions, Liquidity Traps, And Debt Deflations
Societe Generale analyst Dylan Grice has attacked the idea of the balance sheet recession, pioneered by Richard Koo, suggesting that it's a sham. Grice notes that the balance sheet recession episode that Japan has encountered is only one blip in history,...